Predicting the Visual Effects Oscar, Part 4

Now that we know the Academy Award nominees for Best Visual Effects, I suppose we should run the numbers and see if we can predict who will win the Oscar, based on critical acclaim and box office earnings. (Don't know what I'm talking about? Oh, boy. You should probably read Predicting the VFX Oscar Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3.)

So let's run the numbers for 2007, where the nominees are "The Golden Compass," "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," and "Transformers."

Our conclusion in Part 3 was "although it can be wrong, critical acclaim is generally a better predictor of the winner of the Academy Award for visual effects than box office popularity." According to our hypothesis, "Transformers" should win the Oscar, because it has the highest Tomatometer rating (our standard of judging critical acclaim), at 57%.

In addition, Michael Bay's film edged out "Pirates 3" at the box office, too. And on that note, here's an interesting tidbit. "Transformers" had the highest acclaim, and the largest box office among the nominees. Over the last 23 years prior to 2007, 11 years we saw a single film dominate both acclaim and box office, among the nominees. The visual effects Oscar went to that dominating film 10 out of those 11 years.

The films that earned both the highest critical acclaim among other nominees, and the highest box office among the other nominees, since 1984:

• 2004, "Spider-Man 2" (won the Academy Award)
• 2003, "The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" (won)
• 2001, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" (won)
• 2000, "Gladiator" (won)
• 1997, "Titanic" (won)
• 1996, "Independence Day" (won)
• 1992, "Batman Returns" (did not win)
• 1991, "Terminator 2: Judgment Day" (won)
• 1988, "Who Framed Roger Rabbit" (won)
• 1986, "Aliens" (won)
• 1985, "Cocoon" (won)

So, you could say, that according to history and our little theory, "Transfomers" has more than a good chance of winning the Academy Award. We'll find out on February 24! Now, let's just hope there will be an actual awards ceremony.

Read on - here is Part 5.