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I may or may not be live-Tweeting the Oscars. I'm @tvaziri.

Keep your expectations low.

The VFX Predictinator, 83rd Academy Awards Edition

Last May, when the Academy finally expanded the number of nominees for the visual effects Oscar from three to five, I wrote this:

And what will this mean to The VFX Predictinator, our totally awesome formula that accurately predicted the visual effects Oscar winner across 21 years? It will require a serious overhaul, since many of the formulas are dependent on the assumption of three nominees. More likely than not, we'll have to come up with an all-new formula.

My lovely wife, who essentially initiated The VFX Predictinator project, re-examined the data and determined that it would be fairly easy to tweak the formula and treat the data in essentially the same way as did the original formula. Certain multipliers were adjusted for five nominees and other relative formulas were also updated so that the weighting of various criteria would match the original formula. Ultimately, the updated Predictinator behaves in essentially the same way as the old one.

As we learned in January, the nominees for the visual effects Oscar for the 83rd Academy Awards are "Alice In Wonderland," "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1," "Hereafter," "Inception" and "Iron Man 2." And here is the data for these nominees:

And if you're not interested in squinting at the final scores, here they are:

• 7.54 Inception
• 4.68 Harry Potter 7.1
• 3.96 Alice in Wonderland
• 3.58 Iron Man 2
• 2.39 Hereafter

The formula that has accurately predicted the winner of the Oscar for 21 years straight is calling for an overwhelming victory for Christopher Nolan's "Inception." Its strengths were undoubtedly its critical acclaim, with the highest Tomatometer rating of all five films, and its eight staggering Academy Award nominations (scoring it two points), while the other four nominees earning zero points for Oscar nominations, since none of the films earned over three nominations.

"Potter," "Alice" and "Iron Man 2" all had similar numbers, with nearly identical box office earnings, but "Potter" and "Iron Man 2" lost points for being sequels. Both "Hereafter" and "Alice" suffered with poor critical acclaim, and "Hereafter's" box office, relative to the other blockbusters, gave the Clint Eastwood film no advantage. "Potter"'s second place score was earned with its late release date, coming to theaters in November (earning it a huge point).

Amazingly, this years' crop of nominees featured very little organic creature work. Only "Alice" qualified in the criteria of "Primary VFX Are Creatures," and also picked up more points with all of the facial animation featured in the film. With only 1/5 films heavily featuring character animation, the 2011 nominees are a bit of an anomaly, since regularly, most races include 2/3 or 3/3 films featuring character animation. Even with "Alice" earning these critical points for character animation, it still wasn't enough to topple "Inception"'s gargantuan point count. In fact, even if every other film earned those character animation points, it wouldn't have been enough to beat "Inception's" score.

So we shall see if The Predictinator can live again. If we're dead wrong, we'll have to determine how we screwed up, and perhaps, come up with a Predictinator 2.0 (for this new world order of five visual effects nominees), which will evolve over time. That would be unfortunate and, quite frankly, boring, since it feels quite gratifying to have a solid, mature algorithm to predict the winner of the visual effects Oscar. Starting over and patiently waiting year after year, nursing the formula back to health. Naah, we don't want to do that.

We'll know in just a few days, when the winners of the 83rd Academy Awards are announced February 27, 2011.

Oscar Pool Ballot

It's time for the Awesomest Oscar Pool Ballot In The History Of Oscar Pool Ballots.

Each year I create a special ballot based on the oscar.com printable ballot -- but on my ballot, each category has a different point value. The highest valued category is "Best Picture," while the mainstream films' categories are valued at two points. The non-mainstream categories (like the documentary and short film categories) are valued at one point.

This way, in a tight race for the winner, the winner most likely would not be determined by the non-mainstream films (i.e., blind guesses).

Download the ballot here and use it at your Oscar party.


And if you're wondering why Tom Cruise is on my ballot... he's on every one of my Oscar ballots. Because he's soooo cool.

"Inception" Wins Big

Christopher Nolan's "Inception" won big at the 9th Annual VES Awards on February 1, 2011. "Inception" won in every category for which it was nominated, with awards also going to "Hereafter" and "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I."

Here are the winners of the live-action feature film categories. For a full list of winners, click here to visit Visual Effects Society's website.

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Visual-Effects Driven Feature Motion Picture

INCEPTION

Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Mike Chambers, Matthew Plummer
 


Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture

HEREAFTER

Michael Owens, Joel Mendias, Bryan Grill, Danielle Plantec



Outstanding Animated Character in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART I - Dobby

Mathieu Vig, Ben Lambert, Laurie Brugger, Marine Poirson



Outstanding Created Environment in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture

INCEPTION - Paris Dreamscape

Bruno Baron, Dan Neal, Graham Page, Per Mork-Jensen 
 


Outstanding Models & Miniatures in a Feature Motion Picture

INCEPTION - Hospital Fortress Destruction

Ian Hunter, Scott Beverly, Forest Fischer, Robert Spurlock
 


Outstanding Compositing in a Feature Motion Picture

INCEPTION

Astrid Busser-Casas, Scott Pritchard, Jan Maroske, George Zwier


And the Nominees Are...

For the first time ever, the visual effects category of the Academy Awards is filled with five nominees (rather than the traditional three).

Here are the nominees for Achievement in Visual Effects, for the 83rd Academy Awards:

Alice in Wonderland
Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi

Hereafter
Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell

Inception
Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb

Iron Man 2
Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick

The Awards will be broadcast on Sunday, February 27, 2011 on ABC.

The Predictinator 2.0?

Spotted on The Twitter:


Will five nominees screw up our formulas? Of course it will, but this could lead to The VFX Predictinator 2.0: The Next Generation. We're crunching the numbers here at the FXRant worldwide headquarters to see if The VFX Predicinator 2.0 can even exist. Stay tuned.

VES Announces Nominations for 9th VES Awards

From Variety:

"Boardwalk Empire" and "Inception" received the most nominations for the Visual Effects Society's ninth VES awards.

Warner's "Inception," with vfx by Double Negative in London, received four noms, including outstanding vfx in a vfx driven motion picture -- top honor from the VES. Double Negative was also nommed in the category for Warner's "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1."

Also in the race for the top prize are "Iron Man 2" (Paramount/Industrial Light & Magic); "Tron: Legacy" (Disney/Digital Domain), and "Alice in Wonderland" (Disney/Digital Domain). "Inception's" other noms are for created environment, models & miniatures, and compositing.

The VES Awards will presented Tuesday, Feb. 1, at the Beverly Hilton. They will air on Reelz Channel on Sat., Feb. 19.


Live-action feature film categories and nominees are listed below. For a full list of nominees, click here. For more information on the Visual Effects Society, click here.


Outstanding Visual Effects in a Visual-Effects Driven Feature Motion Picture

Inception
Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Mike Chambers, Matthew Plummer

Iron Man 2
Ben Snow, Ged Wright, Janek Sirrs, Susan Pickett

TRON: Legacy
Eric Barba, Lisa Beroud, Steve Preeg, Karl Denham

Alice In Wonderland
Ken Ralston, Tom Peitzman, David Schaub, Carey Villegas

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Tim Burke, Emma Norton, John Richardson

Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture

Green Zone
Peter Chiang, Charlie Noble, Joss Williams, Matthew Plummer

SALT
Robert Grasmere, Camille Cellucci, Mark Breakspear, Ivan Moran

Hereafter
Michael Owens, Joel Mendias, Bryan Grill, Danielle Plantec

Black Swan
Dan Schrecker, Colleen Bachman, Michael Capton, Brad Kalinoski

Robin Hood
Richard Stammers, Allen Maris, Jessica Norman, Max Wood - CG Supervisor


Outstanding Animated Character in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture

Chronicles Of Narnia: Voyage Of The Dawn Treader – Reepicheep
Gabriele Zucchelli, Catherine Mullan, Benoit Dubuc, Peta Bayley

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 – Dobby
Mathieu Vig, Ben Lambert, Laurie Brugger, Marine Poirson

Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore - Kitty Galore
William Groebe, Brian Mendenhall, Aharon Bourland, Steve Reding

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 - Kreacher
Laurent Laban, Will Brand, Matthieu Goutte, Jason Baker


Outstanding Created Environment in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture

Iron Man 2 - Stark Expo
Giles Hancock, Richard Bluff, Todd Vaziri, Aaron McBride

TRON: Legacy – Disc Game
Jonathan Litt, Juan S. Gomez, Kevin Sears, Sonja Burchard

Inception - Paris Dreamscape
Bruno Baron, Dan Neal, Graham Page, Per Mork-Jensen

Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time - Sand Room
Alex Rothwell, Chris Zeh, Laurent Hugueniot, Kevin Jenkins

Outstanding Models & Miniatures in a Feature Motion Picture

Shutter Island – Ward-C Int./Ext. Lighthouse Int./Ext.
Matthew Gratzner, Scott Schneider, Adam Gelbart, Richard A.F. Ewan

Iron Man 2 – Hammer Military Drones
Bruce Holcomb, Ron Woodall, John Goodson, John Walker

The Expendables - The Palace Explodes
Gene Warren Jr., Christopher Lee Warren, Gene Warren III

Inception - Hospital Fortress Destruction
Ian Hunter, Scott Beverly, Forest Fischer, Robert Spurlock

Outstanding Compositing in a Feature Motion Picture

TRON: Legacy
Kym Olsen, Paul Lambert, Sarahjane Javelo Chase, Sonja Burchard

Alice In Wonderland - Stolen Tarts
Lisa Deaner, Orde Stevanoski, Aaron Kupferman, Ruben Flores

Inception
Astrid Busser-Casas, Scott Pritchard, Jan Maroske, George Zwier

Hereafter - Tsunami Sequence
Joseph Farrell, Nick Crew, Jamie Hallett, Christine Lo

A New Metaphor for 3D Stereo

I have a new metaphor to describe the studio-driven push for 3D stereo films.

I've said, and many agree, that 3D is not part of the natural evolution of cinema, like sound and color were. 3D is a paintbrush in an artist's toolbox to help tell a story - and not all filmmakers require this tool to tell their stories.

3D stereo is like Cinemascope in the '50s. Widescreen film was introduced as a cinema-only alternative to television. The beautiful wide canvas was born as a new tool for storytellers, but not every film requires it. And some films are simply wrong for it.

Today, six decades after widescreen was introduced, some filmmakers are still using it. But it's not appropriate for all films.

So, what's the difference between 3D and widescreen? Studios can charge more for 3D, while widescreen movie ticket prices were never surcharged a premium. That's why it's being shoved down our throats by studio executives and producers.

"Back to the Future" and Eric Stoltz

This is another follow-up post to our "Back To The Future" podcast on The VFX Show.

On the podcast, we discussed the early production troubles on the set of "Back to the Future," when the film's leading man, Eric Stoltz, was fired from the movie after five weeks of shooting. No film footage of Stoltz as Marty McFly has been seen by the public, until now. As part of the new 'making-of' documentary accompanying the upcoming Blu-Ray release of the film, we can finally get a glimpse of what the movie could have looked like with Stoltz in the lead role.

Sneak Peek

Oh, my. What on earth am I doing? And why am I doing it?

"Back to the Future," Einstein Jump

This is the first of several follow-up posts to our "Back To The Future" podcast on The VFX Show.

Here's an objective breakdown of "Back to the Future"'s first big effects sequence, the first time slice of the movie that sends Einstein the dog forwards in time.

Real photographic background plate of Delorean, with glows and time slice animation created by the animation department at Industrial Light & Magic.

The fire and sparks (and their reflections) were created on the set with special effects rigs attached to the Delorean.



A large strobe light on location provided bright interactive light. Full frame flashing was also achieved in the optical composite.

Hey, look in the upper left corner of the screen. Say hi to the crew!




Panning left with Delorean. The car is actually on the set, with animation and effects added optically.

The pan reveals bluescreen-photographed Marty and Doc. The actors were tracked and matted into the shot.



Pan abruptly stops, explosions and flares optically composited to represent time slice effect.


First visible frame of explosion element. The main explosion element has a faked reflection in the wet ground, achieved in the optical composite.

Explosion element runs backwards, giving the impression of an implosion. On-location, live-action ignition of fire trails appear, and are skip printed to appear to ignite much faster than reality would allow, approximating the feeling of 88mph.

Marty's foreground foot is rotoscoped to allow the fire trail to appear behind his leg.


The last frame of the shot.

In-camera effect, featuring on-set fire trails, using stunt performers.

This shot was skip printed in post production to give the ignition the feeling of greater velocity, giving the impression of the Delorean continuing its 88mph journey in a parallel dimension of time. As a result, the fire's motion is somewhat strobey.

Notice the relative exposure difference between this shot and the shots preceeding and following it. In this shot, the cinematographer exposed the film to feature the fire (or was underexposed in the colortiming or visual effects process), which reveals the internal structure of the fire. In the shots before and after, the actors and environment were the target exposure values; consequently, in those shots, the fire is blown out and overexposed, leaving only hot white fire shapes.

The first frame of the iconic Einstein time slice effect, featuring actors Christopher Lloyd and Michael J. Fox. The actors were shot against a bluescreen, standing on a mirror. The mirror gave the effects artists pristine reflections of the actors; the reflections were matted to separate them from the actors, and treated in the composite to appear as wet, pavement reflections by adding displacement and tweaking the brightness.

Michael J. Fox's screen right foot was placed behind fire licks via frame-by-frame rotoscoping. Areas of fire were articulated to bury Fox's foot within the fire. Like the previous two shots, the background plate was skip printed to give the fire trails more energy and speed.

"What did I tell you?!?"

"Eighty eight miles per hour!!" This shot is entirely in-camera. The fire trails are a practical effect, just like all of the previous shots. In the sequence, the trails have been fully formed, and are no longer being generated; as a result, there was no need to skip print the trails for this shot.

In a future post, I hope to dissect the shots more thoroughly from a subjective point of view, and expand upon ideas Mark, Mike and I discussed on the podcast.

"Inception" Music Analysis

Even those who didn't think "Inception" was a masterpiece must admit the film is rich, interesting, and worth talking about. Or, in the case of YouTube user "camiam321," meticulously analyzing the film's soundtrack.


Inception Music Comparison by "caiam321"

Spotted at The AVClub, "Great Job, Internet!: The secret of the Inception soundtrack."

update: Composer Hans Zimmer talks to The New York Times about his score.

The Clip Show, 2007

There are a few new eyeballs visiting FXRant recently (hi!), and since I'm buried in work, and would like to show off some of the original articles I've written over the years, I think it's a good time to run a clip show!

Here are some highlights of original articles from 2007, excluding any self-promotional-esque filler material (like, wow, those effects in "Transfomers" were really aweseome, eh?). 2008 and 2009 will follow soon.

May 2007, "Appearing As Himself: Sam Elliott"
This is silly, but funny.

June 2007, "The 'Shouldabeen' Lois Lane"
Instead of Kate Bosworth, Bryan Singer should have cast Rashida Jones as Lois Lane.


June 2007, "'Ratatouille' and the Moving Camera"
Brad Bird is the best live-action director of animated features in the business.

July 2007, "Awful Movie Poster: 'Rumor Has It...'"
Bad movie, bad poster.

August 2007, "Fearmongering"
Do you have a fantasy of shooting children in the back? So do these guys.


October 2007, "Good, Thankless Effects: 'Stealth'" [and the introductory article]
Digital Domain makes pretty imagery for a bankrupt film.

November 2007, "Camera Shake Citation: 'The Sentinel'" [and the introductory article]
Our very first ticket handed out for poor use of digital camera shake. Many more to come.


November 2007, "Movie Marketing is Hard! 'Beowulf' and '300'"
FXRant's most popular article, comparing the marketing of "Beowulf" and "300."

December 2007, "The Polluting Sky: 'Die Hard with a Vengeance'"
Analyzing an in-camera shot from "Die Hard 3," and how an overexposed sky affects the foreground.